Situation in Strait of Hormuz coming to a boil

http://news.nationalpost.com/2011/1...rait-of-hormuz-escalates-near-breaking-point/

So Iran is threatening to cut off oil shipments through the Strait of Hormuz is the US goes through with its additional sanctions against Iran for its nuclear program. If this happens I think the US will have no choice to act. I don't really think anyone believes that Iran can actually succeed in their endeavor, but the scale of the American response is definitely going to be interesting.

I don't care the U.S. gets a very small amount of oil from Iran even if they did they would just buy more from us. I don't see why this is an issue.

Its not just Iran, its Saudi Arabia and the rest of the Mid East aswell and the US gets a lot of its oil from Saudi Arabia.

Then I don't think Saudi Arabia would let them do it. Since it's their money the Iranians are blocking. The U.S. can also just buy more oil from Canada.

Saudi Arabia has no say over what Iran does. They don't have very good relations and its not like the Saudi military is strong enough. A large reduction in oil supply will lead to a price increase and Canadian production alone isn't enough to keep up with American demand.

Its not even going to come to this because if Iran actually goes through with it America will either threaten or bomb their way back in.

Over 15% of the world's oil supply goes through there. Sure, the US, Canada, Russia, and China would be alright, but the rest of the world would suffer. That is the basis for the US getting involved. Also, it disrupts the region.

Wouldn't this also greatly harm Iran's economy?

Well Western sanctions are harming Iran's economy and this little stunt is an attempt to get us to ease up. It won't work, but its kinda cute they're trying it.

If the Straits of Hormuz is blocked by Iran, I feel the US needs to take action, and I think they will take action.

Oh no, the US cant get its way for once. The horror! :<

So yeah. Potentially 22% of the Americans oil imports could be cut off. Even Obama will have no choice but to act.

Also, its not just the Americans that would suffer from this



http://www.businessweek.com/news/20...ld-shut-in-gulf-oil-exports-analyst-says.html

I can prove the first chart out of date as newer EIA information says these are the top five sources:

• Canada (25%)
• Saudi Arabia (12%)
• Nigeria (11%)
• Venezuela (10%)
• Mexico (9%)

Iran would be insane to do this. For starters blockading the waters of Iraq, Saudi Arabia, ect would amount to an act of war between these nations and they would find they would have fewer friends in the region and a lot more enemies. The US 5th fleet has said that it will not allow disruption to the strait and has enough firepower to sink the Iranian navy in a matter of hours if not minutes. There is nothing to fear from this apparent power play.

Yes it appears my source was outdated. Actually its encouraging that more oil is coming from Canada. Still 12% is a lot of oil to be cut off and would have a huge impact on the global market.

Technically speaking, these recent threats to close the Strait are due to the NEW sanctions that the US is trying to/ has already put in place. As I understand it.
They already have a bunch of other crap regarding the other sanctions.

Yes and perhaps Iran sees these new sanctions (which I believe are on foriegn companies doing business with Iran's central bank or something) as something they can't handle and are desperate to stop them. They're probably gambling on politics and general war weariness preventing American action. They're dead wrong of course and an attack (but not necessarily a full scale invasion) would be an easy sell to the public.

While I don't necessarily see any reason NOT to sanction them [the adverse affects on the people nonwithstanding], but desperate people do desperate things and I am not sure if that is the best thing for the region at this time.
I am not sure what the responce will be. In everyone saving face, the US would go ahead and input the sanctions but not act on them and Iran would not attack the Strait. Of course, that is unlikely to happen. But in any case, I think that you underestimate the wearyness of the US population. At this time, most are more concerned with fixing the country than opposing oppression in places whos names they would not even know if not for the wars there.
A single attack isn't enough. Attack once and people see nothing but the damage. The US would have to go in and produce some positive results or else the public support would evaporate. Dropping a bomb in a black market and killing a few civilians is only accepted [in the least degreee] as long as in the long run, the people benefit from the loss with freedom or somesuch.

Rasmussen polling suggests that American's are still very concerned about rising Iranian power and if Iran's blockade has a upward effect on oil (and therefore gas ) prices you bet your ass the people will be calling for a forcible end to it. The Americans could wipe out the Iranian Navy in 10 minutes. Theres no need to invade and get involved in another 10 year nation build, but keeping the straits open to commerce it vital.

I've got my fingers crossed that America doesn't get too wet and wild. Netanyahu is practically frothing at the mouth for a chance to get at Iran, and if America leaves him this golden window of opportunity, well, it won't be long before he has me and the rest of the IDF marching our sorry asses to Iran. And that's really not something I'm interested in.

Concerned, yes, but is it enough to convince them to get involved? There are many a nation on the planet that the US trades with and has 'concerning political situations', but they tend not to want to get involved if it does not affect them negetively. In this case, if the US had not decided to threaten new sanctions, the Iranians may not have threatened to close the Strait. I'm not saying that the US has no reason to be concerned about the state of Iran, but it is pretty clear that the US ignited this recent confrontation. It IS possible that the people will call for a stop to Iran's intentions, but it is EQUALLY possible that the US people will see the US government as having been the aggressors in this case and call for them to back off from Iran. Remember, the sanctions themselves will also add to the price of oil and gas.
Bombing the sons and daughters of a regime, no matter how oppressive, will add fuel to the fire of hatred against the US that the Iranian people have. Bombing their cities is a politically questionable move, as the people will suffer for it; the exact opposite of the end that the sanctions are meant to bring about.

I find this interesting, if I may say so Matt. What do you hear from your fellow countrymen/countrywomen?