Situation in Strait of Hormuz coming to a boil

To be frank, if America goes to war over this, it's going to go poorly. Iran can't deny America victory in a open war, but they sure as hell can do some damage. Because of that, I can't see the American people getting behind a legitimate war and the inevitable insurgency that follows. They've already done that song and dance, and if Obama knows what's good for him, he will bide his time, and play it cool. Iran talks big words, but, as previously mentioned, the Saudis and Israel are much more immediate threats than America that they certainly don't want to antagonize just yet.

I don't think anyone is suggesting a full scale war with Iran, nor bombing Iranian cities. A quick, efficient operation by the US Navy would eliminate any Iranian presence in the strait without any civilian casualties. In the longer term, Israel isn't going to let Iran get a nuke, and it remains to be seen whether America will help them with an attack, or whether the Israeli's even need America's help.

If you think that America can sweep in, end this blockade, and then leave like nothing happened, your completely wrong. The Ayatollah might be content to lie in wait for now, but they aren't intelligent enough to realize that open conflict is a bad idea. They're going to be quick to act if America shows any sign of aggression, and America will be sucked in at that point. I hate to say it, but America needs to either be all in, or sit back.

As for Israel possibly needing help against Iran, it's a simple answer, we won't. Israel has absolute air and naval dominance, and our ground and special forces are vastly superior to there's. It would be a bloody and prolonged conflict, but one Israel would ultimately win. With Israel's win, you would see us establish hegemony over the entire region, and even as a Israeli citizen and ex-IDF, I don't think that's a good thing. If war with Iran is inevitable, I pray there is a solution to the Palestine conflict first, lest Israel act rashly in the face of their new power and influence.

I think Iran's options are very limited in terms of how they can respond to America wiping out their navy. An attack on Israel is something they won't risk, not without a nuclear bargaining chip. Their leaders may be irrational but they're not suicidal.

Oh, you'd be surprised. Besides, Iran can't attack America, but they sure can roll across the Iraqi border, and, depending on how quickly the Saudi's can get their towels on, the Saudi Arabian border as well. America isn't going to let Iran piss all over their newly liberated democracy, and their oil, are they? I think not. If America takes step one, Iran is going to move, and America is going to have to respond in turn. Very simple.

I hate that I have to agree with this statement. It seems inevitable, to me at least, that the US will be sucked into some sort of conflict with Iran. And I will be of age to join the military when it happens. I only say this because it will give me a different perspective then what I had with Iraq and Afghanistan.

I'm fairly certain American/Israeli air assets would be able to contain any Iranian invasion force that may decide to sweep into Iraq. I think privately the Iranian leadership is aware of the precariousness of their position, and without the bomb they won't act. If they thought they could defeat Israel they would have done it already.

Even if what you say is true, and America has to respond to an Iranian attack with a full scale invasion, it is something that I think was an inevitability anyway. Iran wasn't going to stop developing a nuclear weapon and if they successfully did they would be able to exert a lot more power, even if it led to their own destruction. They would have had to be taken out eventually though I was hoping a popular revolution might help it along.

Politically its a lose-lose for Obama. If Iran blocks the strait, he either has to let gas prices go up (and fear and speculation will make them rise a lot faster and a lot sharper than supply and demand ever would) or risk a war with Iran. IMO the least damaging option is to attack, because the Republicans, who have been calling for a tough stance on Iran for years, would really have to grounds to attack Obama on a decision they would likely support.

No one particularly wants to go to war, but me, and most others who would be up for re-conscription know that it's inevitable, and that we will have to deal with it, one way or another. At the very least, I feel I would have some moral obligation to make sure all the fresh recruits don't start stepping on land mines and blowing their fingers off. At least me, my squad mates, and the Matkal will be ready to fight again, and hopefully leave a better regime in place, or at least one we don't have to worry about trying to wipe us off the face of the map.

I just hope it's a while away though. If I'm going to go get shot at, I would at least like to have a few more years with my kids. Not to mention that my wife could also be due for re-conscription, and it would be no good to have both of us gone.

Air operations are nice and all, but they aren't going to be enough to stop Iran from wiping out the Iraqi's. Hell, they can barely wipe their own asses without America's help, so I don't think they can hold Iran for long without a U.S. ground presence. As for Israel, I wouldn't count on our help in Iraq. I doubt that we would be particularly inclined to throw away lives for another anti-Israel state. Unlike NATO troops, we aren't at all subordinate to American command, so we could just as easily skip Iraq entirely and start dropping troops in Iran. If so much of the Iranian army is bogged down in Iraq, especially if there is a American ground presence there, it would be much easier for us to swoop in and mop up whoever is at home. Leaving us marching through Tehran in no time, and the Americans busy doing all the fighting. I wouldn't count on our forces very much, as there are much better routes for us to take to ensure greater Israeli influence in the area.

I hope the U.S. doesn't drag us into another war, 158 died in Afghanistan that is enough.

Harper's been taking a more pro-Israel stance as of late (as he should). If Israel is attacked Canada will be part of the coalition that responds.

How many is too many, if 157 died would you think it was OK?

I guess in theory 1 is too many, but historically speaking 158 in 10 years is extremely low.

Personally I think Obama's just trying to act tough in order to appear he isn't going to tolerate a nation like Iran (to get votes) but not go to war (because before an election and your chances of winning are going way down)

Well 40% of the worlds oil supply does go through that straight, but even so the Iranians need it as well to get supplies and to to keep whatever trade they have left going afloat, while they have other more options, the fact of the nature is that Iran at the moment will only bluff to close down the straight. Although if they did the impacts on oil and other prices would be huge, combined with the already shaky global economical system and you could get a pretty bad result, although the impact would be lessen by alot if the Saudis arise to meet the oil needs.

However this boils down to the trade embargo on the nations from Iran's nuclear weapons research, however even now they are still quite away from obtaining a nuclear weapons (however depending on who you talk to that verys from 1 day to 10 years) even still Israel can always do another hacking again, Kill the Oppenheimer of the Iranian nuclear research, or if all else goes to to the shit they can always do another more grand version of Operation: Opera.

Though I often wonder what would happen if Iran got a nuclear weapon, and if the region broke out into war.

Not for the Canadian army, the war was very costly. They are remembered as national heroes and will soon have a statute in Ottawa.

Yes. And every one of those was a tragedy, but that's the reality of war, and war has unquestionably gotten a lot less bloody.

At least The Americans didn't make us do anything like Dieppe, Hong Kong, or Hill 234.

Matt since you have a first hand view of the situation, How do you expect everything to pan out and what will Netanyahu do?

Out of Curiosity when was the last time Canada had a War (other than this one obviously)? World War II or what?

Well there were some Canadian troops in Vietnam and excluding peacekeeping operations the last war would have been the Korean War I believe.

First Gulf War I think. And Korea as well. As well as a lot of peacekeeping missions.