Scottish Independence

Discussion in 'The Political/Current Events Coffee House' started by StephenColbert27, Jun 2, 2012.

?

Independent Scotland?

Yes 5 vote(s) 20.8%
No 13 vote(s) 54.2%
Screw it, just nuke them all! 6 vote(s) 25.0%
  1. Warburg Well-Known Member

    Member Since:
    Feb 17, 2011
    Message Count:
    834
    Likes Received:
    258
    Trophy Points:
    113
    Location:
    United Federal Kingdoms of Scandinavia
    I would like to point out that Denmark has practically no industry and is mostly focused on the tertiary sector(AKA service sector), and we're doing better than most Western countries. A large manufacturing sector is not necessary for the economical well-being of a developed country anymore.
    Once again, I would like to see some sources of experts supporting your claims.
    StephenColbert27 likes this.
  2. General Mosh Citystates Founder!

    Member Since:
    Feb 14, 2011
    Message Count:
    5,310
    Likes Received:
    668
    Trophy Points:
    193
    Location:
    Scattered to the 4 corners of Earth
    http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-16548644
    It doesn't quite support my claims, but it does explain an independent Scotland would have some large funding gaps, and that their economy would have to rely on North Sea oil and gas revenue, and that if Scotland wanted to survive it would have to switch to a Scandic style economy, which is not an easy process. It also explains taxes would have to rise significantly, and Scotland would have to try very hard to so much as break even, much less have an actual surplus. Excluding oil revenues, Scotland's deficit is quite a bit larger than England's.
  3. Warburg Well-Known Member

    Member Since:
    Feb 17, 2011
    Message Count:
    834
    Likes Received:
    258
    Trophy Points:
    113
    Location:
    United Federal Kingdoms of Scandinavia
    The deficit would exist whether or not Scotland was part of the UK or independent. The situation would actually be slightly better in terms of deficit as a percentage of GDP if Scotland was independent.
    Not really. Their budget might rely on the North Sea oil,(which the UK's already does in part) but not Scotland's economy, and it's really not that odd that their budget have to depend on their natural resources. Many countries depend on them.
    *Scandinavian, not Scandic.(that's a hotel chain)
    The SNP are already social-democrats and have expressed a desire form closer cooperation between the Nordic countries. They often compare an independent Scotland to Norway because of the similar situations(geography, oil, population)
    Why would it be so hard to swich to the Scandinavian model? I fail to see the difficulty for a country like Scotland.
    Just like the situation in the UK now. You seem to forget about the situation in the UK.(and pretty much all of Europe) And I also fail to see where in the article it says anything about "taxes would have to rise significantly." Mabye you could point it out? They actually conclude that: "We don't know how the economy might fare in an independent Scotland." Which seems to contradict your statement that taxes would have to rise significantly.
    Well it would be stupid to exclude it, since they will get it. Countries are supposed to tap into their natural resources.
  4. General Mosh Citystates Founder!

    Member Since:
    Feb 14, 2011
    Message Count:
    5,310
    Likes Received:
    668
    Trophy Points:
    193
    Location:
    Scattered to the 4 corners of Earth
    Scotland's deficit is the same regardless of the UK's deficit, its like the different states all have a budget back in the US, and then there is also a federal budget. So, Scotland keeps its current deficit and then gets a share of the UK's national debt if they split apart, which would be a very heavy weight to shoulder all alone.
    [IMG]
    As you can see, the Scottish budget at the very least relies a lot on Oil and Natural Gas, and then their economy as a whole is made up of the service sector. We are not talking, however, about their national economy as a whole, just the Federal budget. If the Federal budget has a massive deficit, the economy will not do so well. The BBC article predicted British oil companies like BP would treat Scotland much like they currently treat Ireland, sell them a small portion of the oil and treat them as a smaller economy but still give much of their oil to England and Wales, which would be seen by them as the larger more stable economy. I also want to point out the Irish economy is in shambles right now, that's not a good indicator that Scotland would do well on its own, especially when Ireland has been its own country for some time.
    That's how the article put it. They called it "Scandic style". Weird, but its kind of catchy :p

    Public spending, education, research, etc. Read the article I provided, its better at explaining this than I am.
    The taxes part was my own words, not the articles. Its safe to assume at least initially taxes would have to go up or there would have to be massive cuts. The social programs in Scotland now are paid for by England, it would take some time for Scotland to be able to pay for them itself with its current taxes. And as for the article's conclusion, well of course they say that, but the entire article is gesticulating and giving you multitudes of data and unsure predictions, because there is not too much of a precedent for this, besides perhaps Ireland, whose economy is not the best in Europe, for sure.
    They won't get as much, and a lot of Scotland's oil is mined (or drilled) by BP, so much of that oil would not go directly to Scotland. They would get money for BP drilling there, of course, but they certainly wouldn't drill all that oil themselves. BP decides who to sell to, and they'd probably be more inclined to sell more to England than Scotland, as they have already shown with Ireland.
  5. darthdj31 City States Map Director

    Member Since:
    Mar 12, 2012
    Message Count:
    1,244
    Likes Received:
    243
    Trophy Points:
    99
    Location:
    Los Angeles, Americana
    Dude, all Scotland has to do is invade Iraqistan and kill Suddein bin Ladin.
  6. Warburg Well-Known Member

    Member Since:
    Feb 17, 2011
    Message Count:
    834
    Likes Received:
    258
    Trophy Points:
    113
    Location:
    United Federal Kingdoms of Scandinavia
    Sorry, my internet decided to implode upon itself yesterday after I'd written a response to you, which was extremely frustrating, so I'm keeping this short.
    I'm just going to answer overall to this.
    1. The geopolitical facts are that Scotland would get a large part of the North Sea oil and it's revenues. While they may be somewhat dependent on it to improve their budget, so is the UK at the moment.
    2. It doesn't really matter who BP and other oil dripping companies sell their oil to, because Scotland would tax this anyway. The only other option would be nationalization, which I don't think is likely to happen. If you look at a country like Norway, you would see how it would work in Scotland.(though on a smaller scale)
    3. The article fails to mention why it would be hard to swich to the Nordic model for a country like Scotland which is pretty similar to other Northern countries in many ways.(economy, population, geography, culture)
    4. The situation in Scotland is completely different from the situation in Ireland and can't really be compared.(I can list where they differ if you want)
  7. UtterlyImpeccable Well-Known Member

    Member Since:
    Apr 25, 2012
    Message Count:
    891
    Likes Received:
    240
    Trophy Points:
    53
    Location:
    Worcestershire, England
    This is also a good article I found. It starts off with an argument supporting independence, but then gives a very strong counter-argument.
    http://www.guardian.co.uk/politics/2012/mar/07/scottish-finance-report-independence-row


    1. Yes, but to be dependant on a source of oil that has decreasin production and is likely to run out some time in the near future is plain stupid. The UK is certainly helped by North Sea oil, but is by no means dependant, and in an independant Scotland, due to the smaller size of thier economy, they would rely on it a lot more.
    2. No it doesn't matter who they sell their oil to, because the scottish government could still tax it. However, if Mosh is right that BP would be less likely to sell to an independant Scotland, then they would have to buy the oil, or get it from somewhere else. This would be more costly than they currently get oil, and so could potentiall hurt them.
    3. Maybe not too hard, but I'm sure nordic countries pay more tax than they do in Scotland, while not actually getting many more services, as Scotland gets a lot free anyway. So if independant, I'm certain taxes would go up, yet services they recieve would rise far less.
    4. Yes, yes it is.
  8. Warburg Well-Known Member

    Member Since:
    Feb 17, 2011
    Message Count:
    834
    Likes Received:
    258
    Trophy Points:
    113
    Location:
    United Federal Kingdoms of Scandinavia

    Well a lot of the major counter-argument is made up of opinion based claims by two party spokesmen whose parties are against an independent Scotland, hence the "" everywhere.
    I was also not really arguing for Scottish independence, but that Scotland would, and i quote, "Crash and burn... begging for loans of England"

    While the oil will run out eventually, it's not something that will happen overnight, but gradually. Until then, it's not stupid to use the money from the oil revenues before increasing taxes.

    Well that would be extremely unlikely since internal markets are practically always the first to be saturated. It's simply more expensive to transport oil to England or continental Europe before selling it in the country where it was drilled. Some of the oil will undoubtably be sold externally because the supply of oil in Scotland is greater than the demand.
    That's not true. I live in Denmark and I've been to the UK several times, and there are huge differences to services and public spending. Taxation might go up in Scotland, but only because they(SNP) want to raise public spending and reduce the debt in the long term.(something which the UK aren't doing at the moment)
  9. UtterlyImpeccable Well-Known Member

    Member Since:
    Apr 25, 2012
    Message Count:
    891
    Likes Received:
    240
    Trophy Points:
    53
    Location:
    Worcestershire, England
    That is true, but then all the arguments for independance were given by people from parties supporting independence.

    No, but if they admitted that taxes would have to go up at some point, people might re-consider.

    Oil is already supplied to all the UK from the North Sea, and as Mosh said, the UK would be more stable than an independent Scotland, so oil companies would be more willing to sell in the UK.

    Maybe some differences, but Scotland has better public services than England, while having the same rate of tax.


    It also seems to me that Scotland seems very keen to take their portion of everything. They want to have a portion of our military, want to use our currency, want to have our central back, and even want to keep some of the BBC. Which to me seems a very dodgy way of getting independence.
    General Mosh likes this.
  10. Warburg Well-Known Member

    Member Since:
    Feb 17, 2011
    Message Count:
    834
    Likes Received:
    258
    Trophy Points:
    113
    Location:
    United Federal Kingdoms of Scandinavia
    Well hopefully people are smart enough to know that it will eventually run out at some point, otherwise there isn't much hope for Scotland.

    That's because they're still selling it internally as a part of the UK, but once/if indepence is achieved, the home market will be the first to be supplied. Even if they didn't supply, this would not have a negative effect of the BoP of Scotland since they would be exporting a lot of oil, while only inporting a little.(relatively)

    You also have to remember that they will take on a part of you debt, which is pretty big if I'm not mistaken. The only thing I find odd is that they want part of BBC, and as far as I know, they are still debating whether to use British pound, the Euro, or something else.
  11. Jingles Well-Known Member

    Member Since:
    Mar 8, 2012
    Message Count:
    361
    Likes Received:
    315
    Trophy Points:
    48
    Location:
    Northamptonshire, United Kingdom
    It's the scots' call, not mine, so I don't really have a strong opinion either way. Hell if they had independence, and somehow made a good job of it, I might even move there. Although I will say that if they leave the UK, the Union Jack is suddenly going to look a bit shit without the blue.
  12. Chives Newest Member

    Member Since:
    Feb 13, 2011
    Message Count:
    3,270
    Likes Received:
    1,153
    Trophy Points:
    333
    Location:
    Indiana
    This old gem of mine was a plan to invade the North of England and get rid of the pesky Northerners, although it could easily be shifted even further north to deal with an independent Scotland.


    [IMG]
    UtterlyImpeccable likes this.
  13. Viking Socrates I am Mad Scientist

    Member Since:
    Sep 25, 2011
    Message Count:
    9,153
    Likes Received:
    1,487
    Trophy Points:
    248
    Location:
    In a cave,watching shadows (Plato reference)
    It should be up to the Scottish people to decide if they want independence or not, but until a majority of Scottish people support it, I will not.
  14. Jingles Well-Known Member

    Member Since:
    Mar 8, 2012
    Message Count:
    361
    Likes Received:
    315
    Trophy Points:
    48
    Location:
    Northamptonshire, United Kingdom
    Only problem is that Scotland is basically the only reason we get Labour governments every now and again. If they left the UK we'd end up with David Cameron ruling the country Putin-style.
  15. Chives Newest Member

    Member Since:
    Feb 13, 2011
    Message Count:
    3,270
    Likes Received:
    1,153
    Trophy Points:
    333
    Location:
    Indiana
    I think my war plan still applies in that situation.
    It's quite flexible, all it really requires is an Irish vanguard.
  16. UtterlyImpeccable Well-Known Member

    Member Since:
    Apr 25, 2012
    Message Count:
    891
    Likes Received:
    240
    Trophy Points:
    53
    Location:
    Worcestershire, England
    Darn it Chives, I don't want to be right on the front line (about three miles from it), I doubt you could keep the Irish troops from ravaging the local towns.

    But apart from that, I love it. Supremely well reasoned and cleverly subtle.

    @Jingles
    I think I might vote for Labour at some point, if they ever sorted themselves out. I'm not really too fond of us being very capitalist, but right now it's better than red Ed. And perhaos more people might vote for them, if they weren't such a Scottish party in the first place.
  17. JJ12354 Well-Known Member

    Member Since:
    Feb 19, 2011
    Message Count:
    705
    Likes Received:
    33
    Trophy Points:
    78
    Location:
    London, United Kingdom
    If that happens I will move to glorious socialist paradise in the north.
  18. Chives Newest Member

    Member Since:
    Feb 13, 2011
    Message Count:
    3,270
    Likes Received:
    1,153
    Trophy Points:
    333
    Location:
    Indiana
    I don't even remember the exact scenario leading to that depicted English Civil War, but I think it had something to do with some silly thing in the news at the time.
    And no one said the Irish would live long enough to ravage anything.

    My greatest fear in this life is that no one will ever catch on to the "Nuke the Welsh" joke in it.
  19. UtterlyImpeccable Well-Known Member

    Member Since:
    Apr 25, 2012
    Message Count:
    891
    Likes Received:
    240
    Trophy Points:
    53
    Location:
    Worcestershire, England
    It could be anything, North and South have hated eachother for a very long time, at least since the pre-Roman times.

    Oh, that's good then. Just as long as you can promise we won't lose the war, I don;t want northerners invading my town. Although I might be alright, I'll just go and hide in the SAS base near where I live.

    Don't worry, that was my favourite part of the whole plan.
  20. Chives Newest Member

    Member Since:
    Feb 13, 2011
    Message Count:
    3,270
    Likes Received:
    1,153
    Trophy Points:
    333
    Location:
    Indiana
    Wessex is on fire, does that count as losing?

Share This Page

Facebook: