Who Should Romney Pick to be his VP?

Elephant Watcher has now posted its third analysis on Romney picking his VP let me sum this one up:

Today's analysis is about Marco Rubio, Bobby Jindal, and Chris Christie and Elephant Watcher analyzed both of them.

There are number of reasons to presume why Rubio is high on Romney's list. Rubio would be the first Hispanic to ever make it on a presidential ticket. However, the question if this will bring Romney the Hispanic vote is very controversial and Elephant Watcher will post about this later this week or if Rubio wins the VP pick. Rubio is from Florida, a key swing state. Unlike Romney, Rubio represents the Tea Party and conservative branch of the GOP and he is part of a younger generation of Republicans. While Romney grew up in a wealthy background, Rubio has working class roots. The downside is that he has been a US senator for a year and a half and according to conventional wisdom, this would undermine Romney's theme of experience and that Obama is not experienced in the economy. Depending on how you see it, you can say Rubio has or has not had major experience in the economy. However, Rubio has strengths in interviews and debates which should greatly offset his lack of experience even if Obama attacks him on it if he is the VP choice. Also, Rubio reinforces the idea that Romney is on a new path, and not going back to Bush, further closing Obama's possibility of pick option 3 if you remember that thread where Obama most likely has the option for 3 campaign paths.

What about Chris Christie? On paper, Christie may not be such a good choice, he is from the Northeast like Romney, so geographically that does nothing except for a possible swing to Romney in New Jersey. While he is more conservative than Romney, he does not exactly represent the conservative Tea Party wing like Rubio might. Upon closer examination, Christie would balance the ticket in a sense of wealth. While Romney is about wealth and prestige, Christie appeals to the common man. In NJ, Christie is usually effective in winning working class "Reagan Democrats" and he also had unique rhetorical gifts. Christie is aggressive and can use a curse word or two in a speech, and can persuade conservatives that he is one of them (because he largely attacks teacher's unions, taxes, etc.). Also, it seems that Christie can be approved of this straight talk unlike Romney who might say "hell" or possibly "crap" one in a while. Also, he is fat and the obese vote might be on his side.

Also there is Louisiana governor Bobby Jindal, a person who is young and has a little more experience than Rubio. An Indian-America, Jindal would appeal to some more minority votes, but not as much as a large black or Hispanic race. Also, he is not as an effective communicator as Rubio and Christie. Finally, Romney can go with none of the above, perhaps he will surprise us all by not picking someone we discussed or voted on, but it is likely he will not. Rubio and Christie seem safe, and Portman is OK, but he does have more criticism than the other two likely VP choices.

As for all the former candidates, them being the choice for vice president is unlikely.

Jindal won't get it & that makes me happy. Romney can't pick someone who didn't support him. Jindal backed Perry & campaigned for him numerous times. It would be silly to pick him.

Today, Elephant Watcher analyzed Marco Rubio and the Hispanic vote. The biggest advantage that Rubio would bring to Romney's campaign is believed to be Hispanic voters. However, if this is true it needs to be brought to some debate. The Democratic Party's coalition relies on securing a very high percentage of the Hispanic vote. Some Democrats even look to the future (that if the US gets a higher Hispanic population they will hopefully support the Democrats and overtime the Republican Party will decline and eventually be defeated leaving the Democrats with control of the government). The rise of Republican Hispanics like Rubio however, would undermine this plan. There are Republican Hispanics out there and they might grow overtime than Democrat Hispanics. So why is this believed to be true? In the country's entire history, no major party has included a Hispanic on their ticket. In 2008, John McCain received 33% of the Hispanic vote, back in 2004, George W. Bush won with 44%. Thus, there is plenty of room for improvement. If Romney gets 44% of Hispanics on his side like Bush did in 2004, Obama will have a headache to deal with. In the Republican race for nomination, Romney won the Hispanic vote overwhelmingly. He is also not particularly repulsive to Hispanics.

However, there are skeptics. While Rubio is Hispanic; he is Cuban-American and not Mexican-America. Cuban-Americans count for 4% of the Hispanic vote, while Mexican-Americans carry the bulk of the Hispanic vote with 2/3. Rubio would influence Cuban-Hispanics, but they already tend to lean Republican. According to Democratic analysts, Mexican-Americans (and presumably other Hispanics) have a negative look on Cuban-Americans and do not consider that group, "one of them." They also argue that Hispanics do not vote based on ethnicity.

Still, this belief has its flaws. First, there is a basic misunderstanding of what Rubio needs to do. Rubio would not need to get over 60% of the Hispanic vote like Obama did in 2008. Remember, Bush won in 2004 with just 44%. All Rubio needs to do is get a chunk of the Hispanic voters that usually vote Democrat and he can largely help Romney while collapse Obama.

Also, this is actually similar to the Democratic race for nomination in 2008. Back then analysts, largely supporting Hillary Clinton, thought Obama would not win the black vote because he was, "not black enough." Remember that Obama is biracial. However, that proved wrong after winning the Iowa Caucus when it became clear to many that Obama had a very real chance of winning. As a result, blacks did not say Obama was not, "not black enough," but he was the "most black" candidate.

Similarly, Rubio would be the "most Hispanic" candidate on the ticket. It's difficult to argue that the first Hispanic on a major ticket would not draw attention of Hispanics. Also, to those who see the Republicans as racist, Rubio being put on the ticket does wonders for the GOP.

It might go like this: Rubio is announced as VP, Democrats attack the choice as "cynical." Early polls show little movement of Hispanics moving toward Romney. Democrats declare Rubio has not had an impact. Democrats then move in for the kill, attack Rubio's inexperience. Overtime as the possibility of a Hispanic vice president becomes real and Rubio makes his case, things begin to turn. Hispanic voters slowly shift toward the Republican ticket. Failing to notice, the Democratic Party attacks backfire. They might panic then and actually try to compare Rubio to Sarah Palin, this would backfire. It would unite Hispanics and the conservatives supporting Sarah Palin. Then Rubio and Joe Biden debate. If Rubio crushes Biden, it could have a lasting effect. Only after election day do Democrats realize how large the Hispanic vote was towards the Romney/Rubio ticket.

Meanwhile, Elephant Watcher's average still shows Romney winning in the polls with a close 0.7%. No new calculations have come so it still stands as Romney 65%, Obama 35%.

Too bad Ryan is ahead of Rubio on Romney's list...

Ryan's a nut.

Well he has been palling around with Mitt the most.

Paul Ryan?

Yes, Paul Ryan.

I like him, but I don't think he contributes much too Romney. Holy shit you stay up late, shouldn't you be in bed?

Me or Bonaparte? Or both?

Um... no. Its 2 am...

No, this is Patrick.

Herman Cain is the next Obama

You know he would make an awesome VP. Giving Romney important advice and all.

Do you know Romney's prediction of VP yet?

Definitely not anyone he faced in the primary.

You can hardly even say he faced Cain in the primary anyway.

He still actually prepared attack ads on Cain, and vice versa. I hardly would say they would be on good relations.

Also, I love your title.

Haha they did it!!!