Libya Superthread

Discussion in 'The Political/Current Events Coffee House' started by noelsoong, Feb 17, 2011.

  1. MayorEmanuel Do not weep, for salvation is coming.

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    only if gaddafi gets a nuclear bomb
  2. Lenin Cat Well-Known Member

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    and has the guts to cause a nuclear war.
  3. pedro3131 Running the Show While the Big Guy's Gone

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    My contention with that is how do you explain the desertions of Ghadafi loyalist forces? If they were fighting to the death, why are so many laying down their arms? Further, if this was Stalingrad, why did they leave to go fight somewhere else? The last point is mere semantic, because from a military standpoint, it makes sense, just don't call it a Stalingradesque stand if they're leaving Tripoli.
  4. SovietEmpireUSSR Well-Known Member

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    Majority of what i said was sarcasm. I believe the rebels have this in the bag already.
  5. MayorEmanuel Do not weep, for salvation is coming.

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    The new path of US intervention and why Libya was to successful:
    [spoiler:3qltgssz]The United States decided that it was only going to intervene in Libya if it could establish several conditions:
    1) A local group that was willing to fight and die for change; in other words, "indigenous capacity".
    2) Locally recognized legitimacy in the form of the Arab League's request for intervention.
    3) International legitimacy in the form of United Nations Security Council Resolution 1973.
    4) Genuine burden sharing with the British and French spelling out precisely how many sorties they would be willing to man and precisely what level of commitment they would be willing to provide.
    It was only when all those conditions were fulfilled that the Obama Administration agreed to play a pivotal but supporting role in the Libya operation.
    It is important to emphasize that even though it was a "supporting role," the U.S. was indispensable to the operation. Nobody else could have eliminated Gadhafi's air defenses – and, effectively, his air force - within three days. Without America, the operation in Libya could not have taken place. But the U.S. was also "supporting" in the sense that after these initial strikes, it moved into the background and asked its NATO partners to do the heavy lifting. Thereafter, the U.S. intervened only when it felt it needed to. All of this suggests a very different model for intervention, which I believe is a vast improvement over the old, expansive and expensive model.
    The new model does two things:
    First, it ensures that there's genuinely a local alliance committed to the same goals as the external coalition. This way, there is more legitimacy on the ground. And if there is anything Afghanistan and Iraq have taught us, it is that local legitimacy is key.
    Second, this model ensures that there is genuine burden sharing so that the United States is not left owning the country as has happened so often in the past.
    Compared to the wars in Iraq and Afghanistan, the Libya operation was a bargain. It cost the U.S. about $1 billion. The wars in Iraq and Afghanistan collectively cost the U.S. $1.3 trillion. In other words, success in Libya could be achieved at less than one-tenth of one percent of the cost of the interventions in Iraq and Afghanistan. That's not a bad model for the future.
    Now there are critics of this approach on both the right and left. Some on the left – the great liberal internationalists – are horrified by the fact that people in Benghazi cheered for French President Nicolas Sarkozy. They think only President Obama's name should be on the lips of the liberated Libyans.But there is actually nothing wrong with a world in which the Europeans are also associated with the cause of freedom and liberty. It means that they will also be more willing to bear some of the burdens and pay some of the costs of intervention. And it means they are more likely to be involved in the difficult process of reconstruction.
    The old model of American leadership - where we took all the decisions, bore all the burdens, paid all the costs and took all the glory – has to change. People in Washington are going to have to realize that when other countries step up to the plate, they too will naturally get some share of credit. It's more important that Libya be saved than that Washington is seen as the sole savior.
    In the future, we will again have to follow this limited model of intervention. The United States is not going to have the kind of defense budget nor the national will to engage in a series of major military operations in countries that are, frankly, not vital to our national interests. Defense Secretary Robert Gates was very clear and he was right: Libya is not vital to our national interest. The point, however, was that the Libyan revolution was an important event in the context of the Arab Spring and that if we could be helpful, it would be of great benefit to Libya and to America.
    The question before Libya was: Could such interventions be successful while keeping costs under control - both human and financial.
    Today's answer is: Yes.[/spoiler:3qltgssz]
  6. The Shaw Rawnald Gregory Erickson the Second

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    Couldn't have said it better my self, Libya will hopefully be a blueprint for future conflicts. Speaking of future conflicts, my bet is on Somalia.
  7. noelsoong This machine does not require caffeine to operate.

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    It will never be a Stalingrad because there is no winter to kill off the surrounded.
  8. pedro3131 Running the Show While the Big Guy's Gone

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    I've actually been predicting this since highschool (2004) but obviously I've been a little off on the time table. To my understanding the US does have SF teams deployed there and I know we occasionally launch AC-130 strikes against targets (Al-qaeda is very active there) there.
  9. Lenin Cat Well-Known Member

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    Its more like if moscow was captured then stalingrad.
  10. 0bserver92 Grand King of Moderation

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    The actual group is called Al-Shabaab which is a different group but has ties with Al-Qaeda.
  11. crocve Well-Known Member

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    Now you change sides!
  12. slydessertfox Total War Branch Head

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    Either that or Syria
  13. The Shaw Rawnald Gregory Erickson the Second

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    Al-Shabaab is the group that is trying to take over Somalia, but Al-Qaeda is also very active there, often coordinating attacks within Africa out of Al-Shabaab held territory. However recently Al-Qaeda and Al-Shabaab have suffered major setbacks, such as when the highest ranking Al-Qaeda operative in Africa was killed in a gunfight with the TFG, and TFG forces successfully retaking Mogadishu, as well as the expansion of the AMISOM mandate.

    And IMO we are just waiting for a legitimate Casus Belli for Syria.
  14. slydessertfox Total War Branch Head

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    which in Syria, should be coming pretty quickly
  15. The Shaw Rawnald Gregory Erickson the Second

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    All we're really waiting for is an organized rebellion like that of the NTC.
  16. CheFlegel New Member

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    Russia has made it very clear they will not allow ANY intervention in Syria.
  17. DukeofAwesome Well-Known Member

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    well hopefully theyll change their minds soon.
  18. CheFlegel New Member

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    Why would they? Unlike Libya they actually support Syria.
  19. BurGroBro Well-Known Member

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    you like that Syrian bastard now as well?

    Man, there must be some sort of relationship in your life that has some kind of biased against NATO so therefore anything that NATO remotely opposes you must agree with. Gezz, make up your own mind
  20. CheFlegel New Member

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    I don't support Syria, they are just better than NATO by far that's for sure. Besides, if Syria falls then the next will be Iran.

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