War With Iran - The Wheels Are In Motion

Does Vietnam or Korea ring a bell?

IF this war with Iran were to even happen, I HIGHLY doubt we'll be doing much more than what we did in Libya, logistical support. Israel and Saudi Arabia will be more than efficient in actually fighting Iran.

Vietnam was a bit doubtful, but Korea is true.
It's stupid to think that America will pull this shit again, they've been bogged down in Iraq and Afghanistan for the last ten or so years. It's already taken a toll on its economy, and it's power. And I don't think would people like a third fucking war in these shittier times, that will kill thousands of American for nothing. Despite what the war Hawks say.

People saying that Mahmoud Ahmadinejad would not hesitate to fire nukes at Israel or the United States, well personally i don't think he would do that, i mean come on guys Kim Jong IL hasn't ordered any nukes to go off yet and his more of a madman than the Iranian president. So, all that nonsense about nuclear weapons going off is stupid. But i know what your going to say now "But Ahmadinejad in his own speech said he would wipe Israel off the map". Seriously guys, your going to believe him. Unless it's me, or is this forum over exaggerated at times.

War with Iran is inevitable, but it isn't any threat to global security. I wonder what Russia and China's reactions are going to be like when war breaks out between Israel or/US and Iran. I'm certain that Russia's relations with US would deteriorate rapidly, China, perhaps it would go down if you include the Shanghai Organization Cooperation.

I agree with this comment piece from the sensationalist (lol Pedro) newspaper The Guardian:
http://www.guardian.co.uk/commentisfree/cifamerica/2011/nov/03/america-itch-brawl-new-target-iran

Sorry, I just don't buy it. There's absolutely no stomach for war with Iran in Europe or America right now, morally and financially. There has been talk of war with Iran for almost 10 years straight, and nothing has come of it. If there is any conflict, it would be with Israel and Saudi Arabia (who would be very strange bedfellows) against Iran, with probably limited sea and air engagements, perhaps maybe with jet or missile strikes on production facilities also. I don't see it turning into something like the Iran-Iraq War like in the 1980s, complete with mass invasions, trench warfare and counterattacks. I also can't fathom European or American support going outside of logistical means. Direct involvement in any Iranian war (like boots on the ground), or frankly any military conflict to begin with would be highly counterproductive to the U.S. pullout in Iraq and to NATO operations in neighboring Afghanistan. Also, just look at Iran on a map. It's a large, highly mountainous nation. Iraq is mostly flat and can be covered relatively quickly by sophisticated armies. Iran would be an entirely different beast, requiring a massive military buildup that Western nations simply can't fiscally support.

In times of economic uncertainty like this one, Americans are exactly the opposite as how Simon Jenkins says, and that's where I really beg to differ with The Grauniad. As someone who's fairly familiar with U.S.-EU relations (I'm completing an MA in transatlantic relations as we speak) Americans have a habit of becoming very isolationist in trying times. However, I do agree with Jenkins that any military strike on Iran would radicalize the population, something that policy makers are very keen to avoid.

Finally, coming from Germany, it appears this story has garnered headlines in the UK, but over here in the land of Beer and Bratwurst, there doesn't seem to be much concern about Iran. The eurozone crisis is a far bigger concern for most Europeans than any potential Iranian war. Political leaders have other, bigger concerns.

This is getting intense now... but I really don't want to see Britain get into another war with the US.

I agree that it is insanity in terms of public support. But you overestimate the importance of public support. Especially in the US. Who are people going to vote for? A republinut with outrageous proposals or a guy that's not crazy (but still right wing). The public don't have any choice but to vote for Obama. I think the replinuts would support an invasion of Iran anyway (except for Ron Paul I think). Also, if this thread's anything to go by it has public support. (Scary indeed.)

The British Government don't give a shit. The next election is in 4ish years! Much more important is what the US wants to do. We are a US puppet after all. Even if the UK didn't directly participate it would still likely help the US:

the conservative party might not give a shit but their coalition partner the lib dems will, so it will end up with a vote of no confidence and will lead to another election. so yeah the british government will give a shit

Potentially, but I don't think the Lib Dems would. They have shown time and time again they are in it for power not for principles.

I think another war in the middle east would be the point the Lib Dems said enough is enough.

We'll have to agree to disagree on that one man!

Just a reminder of the topic question:

What do you think of a) the possibility of war b) the justification for it c) the outcomes if it does happen?

a) not very likely, there already a similar sitation in korea and thats currently in a 50 year stalemate
b) not sure
c) no idea, it could go anywhere from nuclear war to some very nasty words said at each other

There will be a revolution in Iran and it will most likely be supported by the newly freed arab states leaving Israel in a tricky position.

I hope it delays long enough till I'm in the Army then I can go kick some Iranian Ass

Well, I don't think you would find many people who exactly sympathize with Iran (including myself), but I'm not going to support any military action, and neither do most Americans. The simple fact is that Americans are concerned more with the economy than with Iran. Politicians--warts and all--are not stupid. Promising jobs and leadership wins votes. After Iraq and Afghanistan, any talk of a huge, future military action is a vote killer. The Republican Party is busy cannibalizing itself for the next federal elections, and for the time being, Obama still looks like a shoe-in. I don't want an Iran war just like you do but I don't see it immediately foreseeable. Just like someone said above me, I can see Iranian relations with the West (Israel and Saudi Arabia included) turning into a North Korea or an India-Pakistan diplomatic stalemate.

You don't foresee it because you're a compassionate human being. If we could go to war with Iraq based solely on shaky evidence of WMDs which turned out to be false, we can damn sure go to war based on the possibility of nuclear weaponisation.

That's a great point. Which is another reason why I am against US & UK intervention. It is Israel's 'problem', not ours or the Americans'.


http://www.jpost.com/IranianThreat/News/Article.aspx?id=244434

DEATH TO ISRAEL

I still dont think there will be a conflict the Iranian President has enough trouble keeping control of his own people