So with the revolution done in Egypt, a lot of people seem to be wondering where things will go now. I recently went to a lecture at my university held by a guest speaker whom was a professor who had been teaching middle eastern politics for over 20 years, and spent a great deal of time in Egypt. Because I didn’t know much about the region, or its people, I wrote down a couple of the interesting bullet points during the lecture. I thought I would share them with you guys, hoping to dispel any misconceptions about what happened. First off is that surveys conducted among Egyptians show that the population is more favourable to democratic freedoms than the world average. Also religion is a very poor indicator of political viewpoints in Egypt. In fact in the USA, religion is a far better indicator of political viewpoints than in Egypt. Meaning that the argument that the Egyptians don’t want democracy, or culturally unable to have a democracy because of their Islamic beliefs or whatever else is a very poor one. No one in Egypt looked at Iraq as a positive example. Considering that the country is still very unstable, 100,000s of people died, and there was a huge amount of American intervention, which for obvious reasons is not popular among people in the Middle East. Income inequality is not that bad in the Middle East. It is far worse here in North America. Islamist movements didn’t play important parts in the revolution. In fact the Muslim Brotherhood backed off, fearing that it would be seen as high jacking the revolution, and forcing a response from outside countries, and the army. Also on that note the Muslim Brotherhood is not that popular in Egypt, and if they were to run in elections it is very unlikely that they would win. They also plan to not run a candidate for presidential elections for the first year, but sees the democratic movement the best mode for power, not a repressive style government. Democratic Islamist movements weaken the influence of radical Islamist movements. Egypt is unlikely to turn into another Iran, because there was no grand Islamist speaker that was able to move the hearts in minds of the population like there was in Iran. The Egyptian people want to have a government that functions in the same way that Turkey’s does. Apparently, “Turkey, not Taliban.” Was a popular theme in the protests. Egypt is unlikely to declare war on Israel, for many reasons. First off, a war would bankrupt a country that is already in economic trouble. Second keeping the peace treaty with Israel is in Egypt’s best interests internationally. Third, the Israeli army could crush Egypt’s. The war would be no contest. Lastly, the new Egyptian government is unlikely to sever ties with the USA. The USA gives the Egyptians a billion dollars a year, and no government is just going to past that up. But, does that mean that the Egyptians aren’t going to just blindly agree to everything the USA says? Almost certainly, but that doesn’t mean they will be an enemy of the USA, or work towards common interests.
thanks for posting this Stalin. my AP environmental teacher has been very vocal lately about the middle eastern revolutions but i dont think she knows too much outside of what the news programs say since she seems to be repeating herself one thing she said that worried me was that taliban or some similar extremist group would take power. hopefully your guest speaker is right in his predictions.
Very good points, that most academics (meaning people not named Glenn Beck) have echoed. Did he offer his personal prognosis for Egypt's future, Understanding the people's want for democracy, but also understanding that the Nasser/Sadat/Mubarak regime made the same promises for democratic elections as this transitional government?
He stated that, considering that the last to leaders of Egypt were Army men, chances for Democratic reform are much better if whoever gets power isn’t closely tied to the military. He also said that it might be hard considering that the military is very revered and respected institution in Egypt, and there will almost certainly be elements in the military that will vie for power. I should have stated that he projected that democracy in Egypt by no means a certainty.
I'm cautiously optimistic about the possibility of democracy in Egypt. I think we might get semi-fair elections, but I don't think this revolution will be enough to end the power of the Plutocracy that holds the power in Egypt. The wealthy and powerful in Egypt will use Mubarak is their scapegoat and rally around another one of them. However, I don't think Egypt will stop being a US ally. A billion dollars is pretty damn persuasive!
Semi-far elections..... a Plutocracy..... Wealthy and powerful using scapegoats.... Sounds oddly similar of something much closer to home...
You cannot have free and fair elections when the gap between the rich and poor is there, inorder for there to be a free election, we need equal funding for all election opponents, and equal debate and media time, etc. This is why I support "Jury Democracy" or better known as "Demarchy", people have a duty to serve the country, and people are chosen at lot to serve.
Muslim Brotherhood published their support of the protesters on the third day of protests. According to surveys Muslim Brotherhood has support of 15% among egyptian people (Support does not mean they will be voting for them in potential elections) Muslim Brotherhood also announced that if elections were to happen, they are not putting any candidates on their behalf.
Some nice Bullet Points. All these leaders in Muslims countries are bad people, and they are very corrupt. I am from Pakistan and the same applies. Zardari is very corrupt and the people want him out. Just like in North Africa. The start of these demostrations goes to show how those countries are police states. The man who burnt himself in Tunisia was forced to do so because the police came round, shut down his stall and confiscated his stock.
